Iran war or disaster for the world ?
Iran Blocks the World's Most Important Oil Route – The Strait of Hormuz Blockade: What's Happening and Its Impact? (March 2026 Update)
Introduction
20-25% of the world's crude oil and a significant amount of LNG (liquid gas) pass through this narrow passage – the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, through which countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait export their oil to the world. But the US-Israel vs. Iran war that began on February 28, 2026, virtually shut it down. Iran has blocked traffic by attacking and threatening "enemy" ships. The result: Oil prices have surpassed $100 per barrel, and gasoline is becoming more expensive everywhere.
What happened initially?
February 28, 2026: The US and Israel launch major attacks on Iran. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is killed.
Iran retaliated with a missile-drone attack and declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed."
The IRGC (Revolutionary Guard) stated: "We will not allow ships from the US, Israel, and their allies to pass."
From March 1st to now: 100+ tankers passed daily, now only a trickle – mostly Iran's own tankers or those from "friendly" countries (like China).
Current situation (as of March 19, 2026)
Traffic has dropped by 90%+. Only 90-100 tankers have passed since March (mostly Iran's own oil, ~1.2 million barrels/day).
Some "shadow fleets" (illegal/tracked ships) are passing, but the risk is high – many have been attacked.
Iran says: "The Strait is not closed, it is only closed to enemies." But in practice, it is a selective blockade – Iran decides who passes.
Hundreds of tankers are stranded in the Persian Gulf, with owners refusing permission because insurance is unavailable.
Impact on Oil Prices
Brent crude, which was previously $70-80, is now $100+ (some reports have reached $120).
Petrol and diesel in India and Nepal could become 10-20% more expensive if this continues.
LNG (gas) prices have also doubled – reaching $22+/MMBtu in Asia.
If the shutdown continues for another 1-2 months, there could be a "third oil shock" – 1970s-like inflation, and the risk of stagflation (inflation and economic recession).
Why is Iran so powerful here?
The strait is only 21 miles wide – Iran's navy can easily control it with missiles, drones, and mines.
Iran is not only shipping its oil (especially to China) but is also blackmailing the world by blocking the rest.
The US launched attacks, but could not fully open the strait. Trump asked NATO for help, but most countries backed out, saying, "This isn't our war."
When will this path open?
There's no firm date yet. Some experts say it could take weeks or months even after the war ends (to clear mines and set up escorts).
Countries like France are making plans to escort ships with warships. But the risk is high.
The White House says, "Some tankers are dribbling through, and it will end soon." But analysts say the crisis will be prolonged.
Conclusion: What impact will Nepal/India have?
We are oil importers – a lot of crude comes from the Gulf. If prices rise, transportation, food, and electricity will all become more expensive. The government can provide subsidies, but it will be difficult in the long run.
This isn't just about oil – the entire world's energy security is at stake. We hope a deal is reached soon, otherwise a storm of inflation will ensue
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What did Rahul Gandhi say?
He said in the Lok Sabha: "War has started in the Middle East – between the US, Israel, and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of the world's oil passes) has been closed. This will have a huge impact on India, as much of our oil and natural gas comes through this route."
He warned: "The pain has just begun. There's panic buying of LPG, restaurants are closing, street vendors are affected. This is just the beginning. The government must prepare immediately, otherwise millions of people will be affected."
He accused the government of weakening India's energy security due to its wrong foreign policy, and that the US is deciding who we buy oil from.
He said: "I can see a big problem coming, and this is not a political matter."
What is happening now (until March 19, 2026)?
The Strait of Hormuz is still in a selective blockade – most ships are stopped, with only Iranian or "friendly" ships (e.g., China, some Indian ships) passing through.
Oil prices: Brent crude $110-112 per barrel (sometimes reaching $120), previously $70-80 → 40-60% more expensive.
What Modi said (key points):
"Some people are spreading unnecessary panic over LPG. I don't want to give a political reaction, but these people are exposing themselves to the public and causing great harm to the country."
"They are creating panic to push their agenda."
He said that the government is making every effort to minimize the impact of the war (US-Israel vs. Iran) on the common man, and that energy supplies are being managed. Stocks are good, and ships are passing through diplomacy.
Modi, without naming names (but clearly referring to Rahul/Congress), said that in such times, there should be a responsible opposition, not fear-mongering.
What the BJP and ministers said:
The BJP called Rahul a "self-styled prophet of doom and gloom." He said that Rahul is exaggerating the LPG crisis, while the government has managed it with stockpiles, alternative imports (more from Russia), and emergency measures.
Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said: "This is not the time for rumor-mongering and fake narratives."
BJP leaders like Giriraj Singh accused Rahul of "spreading misinformation."
Why did he say this, when Rahul was largely correct?
Rahul was right in saying that the Strait closure would impact LPG/oil, there was panic, restaurants were closing – and this is happening (queues forming, prices rising).
But the government's stance: panic buying is worsening the situation (people are stockpiling more, leading to shortages). That's why Modi/the government is saying, "Don't panic, we're handling it." If everyone remains calm, supply will be better managed.
Political Angle: This is an electoral/political battle – Rahul is portraying the government as weak (energy security compromised), Modi is saying the opposition is harming the country.
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